Dylan Guenther stole the show last night in Colorado. The Utah Hockey Club won its third preseason game, beating the Avalanche 6-3. Guenther ripped home two goals and tallied three total points.
This was Dylan Guenther's first NHL game action since signing an eight-year contract extension with the Utah Hockey Club worth $57.1 million. Guenther's extension is quite a lucrative contract for a guy who has only played 78 NHL games and has yet to spend an entire season with the big club.
Guenther's big-time pay will add a lot of expectation and pressure on him to perform this season. So far in his NHL career, he has played at a 52.5-point-per-year pace. This will need to improve over the next couple of seasons if Utah wants to get the value out of this contract they are putting in.
However, Guenther is only 21 years old. There is plenty of time for him to live up to this deal, but what do we need to see from Guenther this season to confirm that he will grow into the star player everyone thinks he will be?
What to expect from Dylan Guenther in the first entire NHL season on Utah Hockey Club
Last night, Guenther played his first preseason game. He played on a line with Clayton Keller, and the two dominated, registering three-point nights. In the win, Guenther showed off his elite shot, scoring two goals while only registering 0.17 expected goals on the night.
Even though this was just one game, Guenther's elite shot creating goals above expected is nothing new. In his 78 NHL career games, he scored 24 goals on just 16.63 individual expected goals. Guenther has put these numbers up while only averaging 14.5 minutes per game on the ice and did not get much time with the top powerplay unit.
That will all change this year. Guenther is projected to play a top-six role and will be on the first powerplay unit. These two things alone should naturally increase Guenther's offence, given the fact he will be in a more advantageous spot to produce and create offence.
If you look at Guenther's goals and points per 60 minutes last season, you will see that his goals per 60 were comparable to those of William Nylander, Leon Draisaitl, and Frank Vatrano. These guys finished with an average of 39.33 goals last year, and while these are some of the NHL's elite goal scorers, this is right about where Guenther's ceiling is in terms of goals this season. Given that he will likely play more games this season, it is not unreasonable to expect his per 60 stats to drop slightly due to the larger sample size. Still, it is safe to pencil Guenther in for a minimum of 30 goals, considering he had 18 last year in half of the season with little powerplay time.
As for points, Guenther's per 60 numbers last year were comparable to Brady Tkachuck, Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor; they finished the year with a combined 74.3-point pace. All three of these players had somewhat of a down year compared to the standard they have set, but I think 70-75 points is the benchmark Guenther should be shooting for this year, getting top-six minutes and powerplay one time.